Altona sends Labor a message
The Sunday Age
Sunday February 14, 2010
THE BRUMBY Government was last night claiming a "solid result" in the Altona byelection, even though it was humbled by a significant swing against it of 11 per cent in one of its safest seats.Labor sources last night portrayed the loss as a win because internal polling had shown it would lose the seat by a swing of 15 to 16 per cent. They said bungles by the opposition had softened the blow.But the result has bolstered Ted Baillieu, who said voters had sent Mr Brumby a message. "The people of Labor's heartland in Melbourne's west have sent Mr Brumby a plain message: we've just had enough," he said. "What this vote says is that mums and dads in Labor's heartland have had enough of being neglected by John Brumby."With just over half of the 47,680 votes counted last night, Jill Hennessy, a 37-year-old mother-of-two and former president of Victorian Labor, is the new member for the western suburbs seat, replacing former public transport minister Lynne Kosky who retired from parliament for family reasons. Ms Hennessy won the seat 60.5 to 39.5 on a two-candidate preferred basis.Ms Hennessy won a primary vote of 48.2 per cent; Ms Kosky's vote in 2006 was 60.6 per cent.The Liberal candidate Mark Rose boosted the party's primary vote from 23.8 per cent in the last state election to 33.7 per cent.Ms Hennessy, one of the rising stars of the party's Left, was never really in doubt of winning the seat. Strategists from both sides of politics were focused on the size of the swing as an indicator of fortunes at November's state election. Mr Baillieu was also under significant pressure to achieve a large swing or face rumblings of discontent in among his detractors in the parliamentary party.The new secretary of Victorian Labor, Nick Reece said it was a solid result for Labor. "Byelections are notoriously difficult for governments and this result reflects a strong campaign and a government that is getting on with the job of delivering better schools, better transport and safer streets."The Greens would have expected a better result, especially after years of groundwork by their upper house MP for the west, Colleen Hartland. Their candidate David Strangward increased the party's vote 2.3 per cent from 8.4 per cent in 2006 €” less than the 4 per cent recent polls have indicated. Ms Hartland said it was "a good, steady increase". Political pundits normally expect byelections to deliver a 6 per cent swing against the sitting Government.The election was not so much a referendum on the Brumby Government but a more localised campaign fought on how the government treated one of its safest seats. The big issues were crime, infrastructure and public transport, particularly in the Point Cook area.Mr Reece showed that he was not shy of rough tactics, authorising material that blamed Mr Baillieu for profiting from the sale of a local school, which was sold in the 1990s by his real estate firm. Labor also told residents they should blame Mr Baillieu for the Kennett government's hospital closures in the region.Altona, the fourth largest electorate in Victoria, covers the suburbs of Altona, Altona Meadows, Laverton, Seaholme and parts of Hoppers Crossing. The seat has been solidly working-class Labor for many years but new housing areas around Sanctuary Lakes and Point Cook had many in the party worried that the seat may shift slightly towards the Liberal Party.Ms Hennessy, who lives in West Footscray, has said that while she will not move to Altona she considers herself a local.The seat has been held by Labor since it was created in 1991.In 1996 it recorded its biggest primary vote for the Liberal Party, 39 per cent. But support for the Liberals dropped markedly during Ms Kosky's parliamentary career, hitting a low of 22 per cent in 2002.In the 2007 federal election, Altona booths in the seats of Gellibrand and Lalor shifted in a 2 per cent swing away from Labor compared to the 2006 Victorian election.At the busy polling booth at Altona Meadows Primary School, yesterday morning Liberal voters were difficult to come by €” even among those who complained about Labor.
© 2010 The Sunday Age
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